2014 Loksabha Elections India - Exit Poll results: are they creditable?

2014 Loksabha Elections- Exit Poll results: are they creditable?

Narendra Modi...... Next PM???

2004 & 2009 exit poll survey failed measurably. What would be fate of 2014 exit poll result?How reliable they are?

You will surprise to know that exit polls in fact predict vote share and not number of seats. However media never talk about vote share. Further research methodology used also decides accuracy of result. 

Few interesting facts about exit polls

1. True Representative Samples are crucial for accuracy. One of the major reasons for faulty results in past was improper methods used for sampling.

2. Indian population is diversified (heterogeneous) which makes sampling highly challenging.

3. Research agencies claims 3-4% error in results. Even 1% vote share on an average in India amounts for 10000 votes. This margin is more than enough to deviate the results highly from predictions based on vote share.

4. Different research agencies use different methodology hence differ in predictions. Which is observed in 2014 exit poll results too.

It would be interesting to compare the predictions against actual results on 16th May 2014.

by Prof. Swapnil Undale (Faculty of Research Methodology at MIT School of Management, Pune,India)